Everyone — pollsters and pundits alike — has now come around to the view that the 2012 presidential election could be close. President Barack Obama is still favored, but it could slip away if he is not careful. Republicans could also blow the election and hand Obama a second term.
Elections are often lost rather than won, particularly when the election is close. So let’s take a look at what each side could do to lose in 2012. We’ll start with the Republicans.
First, the GOP could nominate someone who can’t win. Most people assume political parties are rational and always select a strong ticket. This is not always true, of course.
Think of the Republicans’ selection of Sen. Barry Goldwater in 1964 and the Democrats’ choice of Sen. George McGovern in 1972. Neither election was even remotely close.
Republicans could fall into this trap this time by nominating a standard-bearer like Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin or Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
Bachmann is in the process of demonstrating that she is not a serious person by her announced opposition to any effort to increase the debt ceiling, even if the Republicans negotiate a sweet deal from their standpoint. She is willing to risk the U.S. defaulting on its international obligations. Palin, meanwhile, has not been a serious person for years and has done nothing recently to enhance her credibility.
Now, close your eyes and listen to Perry. His accent and word choice sound exactly like the disgraced George W. Bush. The country is in no mood to elect another Texas governor anytime soon.
Republicans could also lose the election by failing to negotiate a compromise with Democrats on raising the debt ceiling. Or by the House GOP voting down a compromise agreement after it has been negotiated by its leadership.
Any default by the U.S. — even in the short term — could lead to financial panic and a deep recession. The Republican Party could pay a heavy price if it were seen as the villain in this drama.
Republicans could also lose the election by spending a lot of time talking about gay marriage and restrictions on abortion rather than focusing on what’s needed to create jobs. Republicans are sometimes like a moth drawn to a flame when these emotional social issues come up. They must resist the temptation to satisfy their far-right wing while forgetting about out-of-work middle-class voters.
What about the Democrats?
Assuming the Republicans nominate a credible candidate, Obama could still win, but there are paths to defeat he must avoid.
Obama could lose if his campaign adopts a strategy oriented toward the South and the Rocky Mountain states that doesn’t pay sufficient attention to the industrial heartland. He carried three Southern states in 2008 — Virginia, North Carolina and Florida — and three Rocky Mountain states: New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.
It is far from certain that he can hold all six in 2012. Even if he does, he could lose the election if he gets blitzed in the industrial Midwest.
Obama carried eight industrial states in 2008: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. He probably can’t win Indiana in 2012 and probably can’t lose his home state of Illinois. The other six are all up for grabs. Republicans did very well in those states in the 2010 elections.
Central to Obama’s success in the industrial heartland in 2008 was the role of organized labor, which has a significant membership in all eight states. Labor has been ambivalent about Obama over the past two years because of his failure to push its No.1 legislative priority: card check. It is also disheartened by his recent embrace of free-trade agreements.
Obama must kiss and make up with labor between now and November 2012. Republican governors in these heartland states have helped him by going on an anti-labor tear since their elections.
Obama needs to reach out to the labor leadership in a way that he has been unwilling to do so far. If he doesn’t, he may be drawing to an inside straight in the electoral college.
Also, the president must continue a serious outreach to the Jewish community. Jewish voters are concentrated in many of the swing states that could be key to Obama’s success — Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.
He got off to a rocky start with his State Department speech on Israel this spring and has been working hard ever since to mend damage caused by his remarks there. Jewish voters have been extremely loyal to the Democratic Party since the New Deal, but Obama has some ground to make up. He must work at this.
Obama could also lose important minority support if his Justice Department takes a pass on aggressive congressional redistricting plans that discriminate against minority voters in states like Texas and North Carolina.
The Texas plan penalizes the state’s growing Latino community, and North Carolina Republicans are seeking to minimize African-American influence. The implications of these plans extend far beyond the boundaries of the two states involved.
These plans become law if pre-cleared by the Justice Department or a federal court in the District of Columbia. Under the Voting Rights Act, Texas and North Carolina can bypass the Democratic Justice Department by going directly to court. If they do, the Justice Department will need to intervene on the side of minority voters. Failure to do so will be noticed by both groups.
It will be interesting to see if either side takes actions that could mean a loss in 2012.
By MARTIN FROST
Martin Frost, who served in the House from 1979 to 2005, was the Democratic Caucus chairman and head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He is now an attorney with Polsinelli Shughart.
Źródło: politico.com June 30 2011