Can he recover?
Nicolas Sarkozy could yet win re-election—so long as he offers voters a real choice
HE HAS plumbed new lows as the most unpopular French president in the Fifth Republic ahead of a re-election bid. The latest polls suggest that he will lose next spring’s election to his most likely opponent by a whopping 18 points. The euro zone’s ills and deepening gloom over the world economy will make it hard to close such a wide gap. Many observers think Nicolas Sarkozy is doomed to ignominious departure after just one erratic term in office.
Why are the French so negative about him? One answer is that few incumbents are popular nowadays. Barack Obama is in a hole (see Lexington); Germany’s Angela Merkel has just lost yet another regional election; Silvio Berlusconi’s government this week suffered a general strike in Italy; the ruling Spanish Socialists look certain to be booted out in November.
et Mr Sarkozy has made many mistakes of his own. These include taking too prominent a role in government instead of relying on his prime minister; allowing a bling-bling image to take hold and being seen as a friend of the rich; and turning away from the liberalising reforms for which he once campaigned. Where his uppity energy once inspired the country’s voters, today it seems merely to annoy. As this paper observed a year ago, his presidency has got smaller.
But do not write him off. There is an opportunity for Mr Sarkozy—both to win and to become a more substantial figure. Indeed the two aims may be beginning to elide. The politics are not irredeemable. Although France still has much to do to repair its public finances and pep up its economy, it is in better shape than the southern Mediterranean countries that are struggling to stay in the euro. The successful military campaign in Libya may yet bolster the president’s image at home. The rising threat from the National Front’s Marine Le Pen seems, at least for now, to have reached a plateau. Unlike Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, the only recent president to have been ousted after a single term, Mr Sarkozy faces no serious centre-right challenger.
Say no to socialism lite
Mr Sarkozy’s main advantage is the same as Mr Obama’s: the inadequacy of the opposition. France’s Socialist Party has not won a presidential election since 1988, and it still seems to be mired in a neanderthal past of traditional socialism. It has lost its one-time front-runner (and would-be moderniser), Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Unlike Mr Sarkozy, who has seemed a little more presidential in recent months, none of the remaining candidates looks to be an impressive political campaigner.
So Mr Sarkozy’s fortunes might revive, but only if he has something to say that distinguishes him from the left. In 2007 he had a clear message: promote competition, embrace globalisation and bring in liberalising reforms. Not only has he done precious little of that, but his answer to the euro crisis has been to lurch in the opposite direction: new levies on the rich, scrapping ceilings on personal taxes, abolishing employers’ tax breaks for overtime. He has barely begun to reform the country’s bloated public sector. It beggars belief that, after 16 years of supposedly centre-right presidents, the French state should account for 56% of GDP, second only to Denmark in the European Union and far above the 47% share in Germany.
Nobody will be surprised that we want Mr Sarkozy to rediscover his liberalising zeal. But it could also serve him well politically. If he merely tries to sell a lighter version of socialism, many French voters will prefer to go for the real thing instead. Moreover, his appeal has always been as a reformer. The bigger Sarkozy stood for something. In 2007 he managed to convince most French voters that it was time to change course. These are the people he needs to win back—and the need for reform is even greater today.
Źródło: economist.com, September 10th 2011