By Laura Rozen
The GOP-led House and gains in the Senate threaten to potentially undo Obama’s reset of U.S. relations with Russia, including U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control, cooperation on countering Iran’s nuclear program, and emboldening Russian hardliners, the New York Times Peter Baker reports:
In forging a friendlier relationship with the Kremlin after years of tension, Mr. Obama needs Congress to sign off on three major policy changes: an arms control treaty to reduce nuclear arsenals and resume inspections; a civilian nuclear agreement to permit greater cooperation; and a repeal of cold war-era trade restrictions so Russia can join the World Trade Organization.
Persuading Congress to approve any of those was already daunting when Democrats had control of both houses, but with Republicans taking over the House and bolstering forces in the Senate, all of these initiatives appear in jeopardy. If Mr. Obama cannot deliver on his promises, American officials and foreign policy specialists fear it will rupture the so-called reset policy and validate Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin and other hard-liners who have been skeptical of the rapprochement.
In the days since the election, Russian officials have already threatened to shelve the New Start arms control treaty. Mr. Obama has decided to make a concerted push to convince the departing Senate to approve the treaty in a lame-duck session this month. The president brought it up last week, along with extending middle-class tax cuts, as his two biggest priorities for the session. …
If he fails to win approval before the old Senate adjourns, Mr. Obama’s advisers and allies worry that the relationship with Russia will be frozen at a time when they consider it critical to increase Russian cooperation on several fronts, most notably pressuring Iran to give up its nuclear program. …
Within the administration, a nightmare scenario envisions even worse consequences. Russian leaders traditionally have looked for weakness in American counterparts and Mr. Obama’s failure to impose his will on Congress would be seen as a sign of impotence. That could undercut President Dmitri A. Medvedev, who has made the improved relationship between Russia and the United States a centerpiece of his tenure despite Mr. Putin’s doubts.
If the reset comes undone, some analysts suggested it would hurt Mr. Medvedev’s chances of convincing Mr. Putin to let him run for a second term in 2012. It could embolden those in the security establishment who want to keep close ties with Iran. By some estimates, Russia’s decision to go along with sanctions on Iran is costing it about $15 billion in arms sales.
Źródło: Laura Rozen, Ben Smith Daily Blog Digest, November 7 2010